The first thing that is evident is that there is less choice available when looking for finance. This is because several of the banks, which were actively lending to foreign investors have stopped doing so, these would include BBVA and BCP. That said, there are still other banks that remain in the market, just less of them.The banks that remain however have more stringent terms for their lending. Products, which were available at 75% loan to value in 2007, are now reduced to 60%. Banks are looking for high net worth clients and interest rates are far higher. Lenders are seeking to improve the quality of their lending books and this is reflected in their policy.With certain lenders, it used to be the case that if you managed to negotiate a price well below the market value, you could achieve a 100% loan against the price, as the lenders would allow the loan percentage to be a reflection of the valuation. This is no longer the case, far more conservative lending policy now no longer allows this and even if you get a discount you’ll be restricted to a percentage of the purchase price.Although these changes to lending criteria have restricted the availability of lending, there has been a positive side to this. The market is now far more realistically priced that it was 4 years ago, this is reflected in the valuations that are coming back from surveyors. Judith Price at Caixa Geral de Depositos told me last week “in my experience valuations are all coming in at purchase price or slightly above”. Realism in any market is a good thing as it leads to stability and confidence.There are of course still over riding factors which could destabilise everything, you only have to look eastwards to Greece to see where these originate. In September there were some purchases that fell away over the Greek problems and the IMF moving in. The cost of money went up and these increases are passed on to the end borrower.As far as actual development finance is concerned, the picture is even bleaker. Weak demand and falling prices have meant that there are many projects already at a stand still and lenders are of the view “why lend on more?”So are there any good bits of news and what should investors consider?To start with, variable rate loans in Portugal are usually linked to Euribor, When looking at 6 month Euribor, in March 2011 it stood at 1.352%, in September 1.755% but now stands at 1.505%, so it is possible that barring other financial shocks, rates may have passed their peak.Bank loan margins are still high though, because of the cost of money, so it may be better to consider a fixed rate product for the next few years.Portugal still offers good value for money and with Sterling’s recent strengthening against the Euro this has again improved. Investors should also consider whether they could raise finance in their own country at a cheaper rate than those available in Portugal, although this needs to be weighed against having Euro debt against a Euro based property if their own currency is outside the Euro zone.Remember that finance is more difficult to obtain across Europe. Portugal remains a wonderful country with far better value in the property market, than a few years ago. Whilst the economy still has a large debt overhang, the government has taken strong steps to try and bring this under control.
S&P 500 Rallies As U.S. Dollar Pulls Back Towards Weekly Lows
Key Insights
The strong pullback in the U.S. dollar provided significant support to stocks.
Treasury yields have pulled back after touching new highs, which served as an additional positive catalyst for S&P 500.
A move above 3730 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance level at 3760.
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Pfizer Rallies After Announcing A Huge Price Hike For Its COVID-19 Vaccines
S&P 500 is currently trying to settle above 3730 as traders’ appetite for risk is growing. The U.S. dollar has recently gained strong downside momentum as the BoJ intervened to stop the rally in USD/JPY. Weaker U.S. dollar is bullish for stocks as it increases profits of multinational companies and makes U.S. equities cheaper for foreign investors.
The leading oil services company Schlumberger is up by 9% after beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Schlumberger’s peers Baker Hughes and Halliburton have also enjoyed strong support today.
Vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna gained strong upside momentum after Pfizer announced that it will raise the price of its coronavirus vaccine to $110 – $130 per shot.
Biggest losers today include Verizon and Twitter. Verizon is down by 5% despite beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Subscriber numbers missed estimates, and traders pushed the stock to multi-year lows.
Twitter stock moved towards the $50 level as the U.S. may conduct a security review of Musk’s purchase of the company.
From a big picture point of view, today’s rebound is broad, and most market segments are moving higher. Treasury yields have started to move lower after testing new highs, providing additional support to S&P 500. It looks that some traders are ready to bet that Fed will be less hawkish than previously expected.
S&P 500 Tests Resistance At 3730
S&P 500 has recently managed to get above the 20 EMA and is trying to settle above the resistance at 3730. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
If S&P 500 manages to settle above 3730, it will head towards the next resistance level at 3760. A successful test of this level will push S&P 500 towards the next resistance at October highs at 3805. The 50 EMA is located in the nearby, so S&P 500 will likely face strong resistance above the 3800 level.
On the support side, the previous resistance at 3700 will likely serve as the first support level for S&P 500. In case S&P 500 declines below this level, it will move towards the next support level at 3675. A move below 3675 will push S&P 500 towards the support at 3640.
What We Have Here Is A Failure To Communicate
The results of this past election proved once again that the Democrats had a golden opportunity to capitalize on the failings of the Trump Presidency but, fell short of a nation wide mandate. A mandate to seize the gauntlet of the progressive movement that Senator Sanders through down a little over four years ago. The opportunities were there from the very beginning even before this pandemic struck. In their failing to educate the public of the consequences of continued Congressional gridlock, conservatism, and what National Economic Reform’s Ten Articles of Confederation would do led to the results that are playing out today.. More Congressional gridlock, more conservatism and more suffering of millions of Americans are the direct consequences of the Democrats failure to communicate and educate the public. Educate the public that a progressive agenda is necessary to pull the United States out of this Pandemic, and restore this nations health and vitality.
It was the DNC’s intent in this election to only focus on the Trump Administration. They failed to grasp the urgency of the times. They also failed to communicate with the public about the dire conditions millions have been and still are facing even before the Pandemic. The billions of dollars funneled into campaign coffers should have been used to educate the voting public that creating a unified coalition would bring sweeping reforms that are so desperately needed. The reality of what transpired in a year and a half of political campaigning those billions of dollars only created more animosity and division polarizing one extreme over another.
One can remember back in 1992 Ross Perot used his own funds to go on national TV to educate the public on the dire ramifications of not addressing our national debt. That same approach should have been used during this election cycle. By using the medium of television to communicate and educate the public is the most effective way in communicating and educating the public. Had the Biden campaign and the DNC used their resources in this way the results we ae seeing today would have not created the potential for more gridlock in our government. The opportunity was there to educate the public of safety protocols during the siege of this pandemic and how National Economic Reform’s Ten Articles of Confederation provides the necessary progressive reforms that will propel the United States out of the abyss of debt and restore our economy. Restoring our economy so that every American will have the means and the availability of financial and economic security.
The failure of the Democratic party since 2016 has been recruiting a Presidential Candidate who many felt was questionable and more conservative signals that the results of today has not met with the desired results the Democratic party wanted. Then again? By not fully communicating and not educating the public on the merits of a unified progressive platform has left the United States transfixed in our greatest divides since the Civil War. This writers support of Senator Bernie Sanders is well documented. Since 2015 he has laid the groundwork for progressive reforms. He also has the foundations on which these reforms can deliver the goods as they say. But, what did the DNC do, they purposely went out of their way to engineer a candidate who was more in tune with the status-quo of the DNC. They failed to communicate to the public in educating all of us on the ways our lives would be better served with a progressive agenda that was the benchmark of Senators Sanders Presidential campaign and his Our Revolution movement. And this is way there is still really no progress in creating a less toxic environment in Washington and around the country.